On January 26, 2026, the BC Real Estate Association (BCREA) released a new Market Intelligence report warning that immediate government action is needed to support housing starts—or British Columbia risks rapid home price increases toward the end of this decade.
Even though the market feels slower and more cautious right now, BCREA’s message is clear: what we build (or do not build) today strongly influences affordability tomorrow.
The core concern: a repeat of the 2010s cycle
BCREA draws a direct comparison to the post-Global Financial Crisis period, when softer demand boosted inventory and slowed construction—then, as demand returned, the province was left severely undersupplied, driving sharp price increases and worsening affordability.
In other words: a slow market can plant the seeds for a future supply shortage—and that shortage can show up later as higher prices.
What the report highlights
Here are the key takeaways BCREA points to:
- Unsold new-home inventory is at a 30-year high, especially in the apartment segment.
- With weak pre-sales, many developers find financing difficult, which can lead to project delays or cancellations—reducing future supply.
- BCREA’s modelling shows a significant upside risk to prices, with home prices potentially rising up to 27% (inflation-adjusted) by 2032 if today’s construction shortfalls collide with recovering demand later in the decade.
- They recommend policy action now on both the supply and demand sides, including steps to strengthen pre-sales, reconsider foreign-buyer participation in new construction, and reduce development costs.
BCREA’s Chief Economist also emphasizes that rising unsold inventory combined with policy and cost pressures is discouraging development—creating risk of chronic undersupply when demand inevitably returns.
My perspective (and why this matters to you)
Over the past several years, I have consistently encouraged clients to look beyond “today’s market mood” and pay attention to the construction pipeline—because supply takes years to deliver, and shortages tend to show up later and quickly.
BCREA’s report aligns with that practical reality. It does not suggest that prices must surge tomorrow. Rather, it underscores that if we under-build during a slower cycle, affordability can deteriorate rapidly when demand rebounds.
What homeowners and buyers can do now
You cannot control government policy or construction timelines, but you can control your preparation and decision-making. Here are a few practical steps:
If you plan to buy in the next 1–3 years
- Get financing-ready early (pre-approval, renewal planning if you own, and a clear monthly comfort range).
- Track supply signals, not just headlines: new project launches, cancellations, and completed inventory.
- Be strategic about product type (condo, townhome, detached) and location—supply conditions differ by submarket.
If you already own
- If a move is likely later this decade, consider a plan that keeps options open—especially if supply tightens again.
- If you have a mortgage renewal in the next 12–24 months, build a buffer and review scenarios.
If you are considering presales
- Ask the right questions: construction timeline, developer track record, deposit structure, assignment rules, and completion risk.
- Presales can be an excellent tool when used carefully, but they are not “one size fits all.”
If you would like the report summary applied to your situation, I can help
Economic reports are most useful when translated into decisions: timing, property type, neighborhood selection, and risk management.
If you tell me your timeline (even a rough one), I can:
- summarize what current supply conditions look like in your target area, and
- outline a practical plan that fits your goals and comfort level.
Read BCREA’s report here: